Header menu link for other important links
X
Forecasting the winter shower over India through a neurocomputing approach
S S DE, G CHATTOPADHYAY, S PAUL, D K HALDAR, S CHATTOPADHYAY
Published in IWA Publishing
2012
Volume: 14
   
Issue: 2
Pages: 512 - 522
Abstract
The development of a neurocomputing technique to forecast the average winter shower in India has been modeled from 48 years of records (1950-1998). The complexities in the rainfall-sea surface temperature relationships have been statistically analyzed along with the collinearity diagnostics. The presence of multicollinearity has been revealed and a variable selection has been executed accordingly. The absence of persistence has also been revealed. For this reason, an Artificial Neural Net Model as a predictive tool for the said meteorological event in the form of a Multiple Layer Perceptron has been generated with a sea surface temperature anomaly and monthly average winter shower data over India during the above period. After proper training and testing, a Neural Net model with small prediction error is developed and the supremacy of the Artificial Neural Net over conventional statistical predictive procedures has been established statistically. © IWA Publishing 2012.
About the journal
JournalJournal of Hydroinformatics
PublisherIWA Publishing
ISSN1464-7141
Open AccessYes